Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
