Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
